Feb 22 2016

Rate Range Projection by Bank

Next week 109.00 - 114.00

Next 3 months 105.00 - 115.00

The below is a topic from market news

Seeking evidence of the slowdown

Worries about a global slowdown will keep investors focused on early indicators of stress next week, looking for signs that resilient domestic demand in Europe and the U.S. can sustain growth in spite of emerging markets struggles.

Surveys on manufacturing and consumer sentiment on both sides of the Atlantic will offer clues about how much the strain of weak trade, investment and wage growth are spilling into advanced economies.

The euro area and the U.S had both been expected to weather the global dip relatively unharmed, but the OECD poured cold water on those hopes this week, when it slashed its GDP forecasts for nearly all the major economies. Germany, Canada and the U.S. saw some of the biggest cuts.

The European Central Bank also pointed to fresh growth risks this week, but it argued that most of them came from outside the euro zone. The domestic recovery was progressing as expected, supported by growing consumption, the bank said.

So far, the data by and large point to resilience, UBS said in a note to clients. However, we noticed a weakening of some of the most sensitive indicators in January.

The earliest signs of weakness will likely emerge in confidence indicators of the highly export-orientated industrial/manufacturing sectors, above all in the manufacturing PMIs and the German Ifo index, UBS said, referring to reports due early next week.

Fresh lending and money supply figures, another set of early indicators of trouble, are also due next week. Investors will want to know if last month's poor figures were one-offs or signs of trouble brewing.